{ "methodology": { "title": "Long-term flood susceptibility screening index", "as_of": "2026-09-14", "author": "Jorge Gomes (VOST Portugal)", "formula": "Overall = 100 × (0.40 × fluvial/5 + 0.25 × pluvial/flash/5 + 0.15 × coastal/5 + 0.20 × climate outlook/5), rounded.", "bands": [ { "label": "Low", "min": 0, "max": 24 }, { "label": "Moderate", "min": 25, "max": 49 }, { "label": "High", "min": 50, "max": 74 }, { "label": "Very high", "min": 75, "max": 100 } ], "component_scale": "0 = no meaningful evidence; 1 = low/limited; 2 = locally relevant; 3 = material; 4 = high; 5 = very high/recurrent or extensive.", "interpretation": "A transparent comparative screen of city-scale susceptibility and future amplification. It is not an official EFAS probability, a forecast, an APA legal designation or property-level advice.", "core_sources": [ { "title": "European Flood Awareness System", "publisher": "Copernicus Emergency Management Service", "url": "https://www.copernicus.eu/en/european-flood-awareness-system", "note": "EFAS provides European flood overviews and forecasts up to 10 days ahead; it is operational forecast context, not a long-term parcel-risk product." }, { "title": "Global river flood hazard maps v2.1", "publisher": "European Commission Joint Research Centre / Copernicus EMS", "url": "https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/JRC_CEMS_GLOFAS_FloodHazard_v2_1", "note": "90 m modeled river-inundation depth for 10–500-year return periods; excludes small islands/basins below 500 km² and is not an official national hazard map." }, { "title": "A new dataset of river flood hazard maps for Europe and the Mediterranean Basin", "publisher": "Earth System Science Data", "url": "https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1549/2022/", "note": "Peer-reviewed methods and limitations, including omission of flood protections and rivers with upstream areas below 500 km²." }, { "title": "Planos de Gestão dos Riscos de Inundações", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/agua/planos-de-gestao-dos-riscos-de-inundacoes", "note": "Official Portuguese framework for APRI, ARPSI, flood-hazard/risk maps and six-year management plans." }, { "title": "2.º Ciclo de Planeamento (2022–2027)", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/agua/2o-ciclo-de-planeamento-2022-2027", "note": "Current-cycle national source: 63 significant-risk areas and fluvial, pluvial and coastal mapping." }, { "title": "Adapting to rising river flood risk in the EU under climate change", "publisher": "European Commission Joint Research Centre, PESETA IV", "url": "https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC118425", "note": "European long-term river-flood impacts and adaptation context; country-scale results are not city projections." }, { "title": "OpenStreetMap copyright and licence", "publisher": "OpenStreetMap Foundation", "url": "https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright", "note": "Basemap data licensing and attribution." } ] }, "cities": [ { "caveat": "This is a city-scale comparative screening index, not an official EFAS probability, a flood-warning product, or a determination of risk at the supplied point or any parcel. APA ARPSI maps and municipal exposure figures concern delineated hazard/risk areas and planning scenarios rather than all of Porto; coastal, riverine and surface-water pathways can also interact during storms. EFAS must be interpreted alongside Portuguese national, river-basin and local civil-protection information.", "city": "Porto", "climate_outlook_score": 5, "coastal_score": 3, "confidence": "High", "coordinates": { "lat": 41.1579, "lon": -8.6291 }, "efas_relevance": "EFAS is relevant as continental-scale early-warning context for the large, international Douro basin and for heavy-rain/flash-flood awareness. Copernicus EMS states that EFAS provides European-scale probabilistic river and flash-flood forecasts, typically targets rivers with drainage areas above 500 km², and is complementary to national/regional systems. It is not a parcel-level long-term prediction; no EFAS alert or forecast is used as evidence of future local flood probability here.", "fluvial_score": 4, "hydro_setting": "Porto occupies the lower Douro estuary at the Atlantic Ocean. The Douro is a large international river basin whose mouth is adjacent to the city; Porto therefore has a low-lying riverfront/estuarine setting as well as an exposed Atlantic Foz coastal frontage. Urbanised, highly impervious areas, steep slopes and constrained/culverted watercourses add a distinct surface-water flooding pathway.", "long_term_climate_signal": "Porto's official PMAC assessment uses regionalised CORDEX climate models, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. It identifies excessive precipitation as aggravating urban flooding and fluvial floods and sea-level rise as aggravating coastal erosion/overtopping. Its risk table keeps urban flooding at Elevated through both future periods, raises fluvial flooding from Elevated currently and at mid-century to Critical in 2071–2100, and raises coastal overtopping from Elevated currently to Critical in both future periods. These are planning projections with stated uncertainty, not local event probabilities.", "observed_event_evidence": "A peer-reviewed reconstruction of floods at the mouth of the Douro in Porto records 54 eighteenth-century floods, including seven described as catastrophic. Most occurred in autumn and winter and were associated chiefly with Atlantic frontal systems and positive precipitation anomalies in north-west Iberia. This establishes a long historical record of damaging Douro-mouth flooding, but does not by itself quantify risk under today's river regulation, drainage network, defences, land use, or population.", "official_hazard_evidence": "Portugal's APA PGRI for the Douro identifies two significant flood-risk areas directly relevant to Porto: the coastal ARPSI of Porto–Foz and the Douro-river ARPSI of Porto–Vila Nova de Gaia. The plan explicitly classifies the latter as fluvial, notes material dependence on upstream Spanish and Portuguese dam management, and maps an inundation scenario there; its exposed-element summary places 61% of the potentially affected population in the high/very-high hazard classes. For Porto–Foz, APA maps a coastal inundation scenario and specifies a coastal-overtopping forecasting measure. Porto's municipal climate-risk assessment separately identifies urban inundation areas and cites dense impermeable development, culverted watercourses, steep terrain, and drainage not adapted to intense rainfall as vulnerabilities.", "overall_score": 81, "pluvial_flash_score": 4, "rationale": "Fluvial exposure is high because the city lies at the mouth of the large Douro and APA designates/maps the Porto–Vila Nova de Gaia ARPSI as fluvial, with substantial high/very-high hazard among mapped exposed population. Pluvial/flash susceptibility is high because the municipal assessment identifies urban inundation as an Elevated risk, affecting about 13% of the population in its exposure assessment, in a dense and impervious city with constrained watercourses and drainage vulnerabilities. Coastal susceptibility is material but spatially more localised at Foz: APA designates a coastal ARPSI and the municipality identifies overtopping as a priority risk. The climate outlook is very high because the municipal, scenario-based assessment projects amplification of all three pathways, with Critical late-century fluvial and Critical mid-/late-century coastal-overtopping risk. Overall score = round(100 × (0.40×4/5 + 0.25×4/5 + 0.15×3/5 + 0.20×5/5)) = 81.", "risk_band": "Very high", "sources": [ { "date_or_year": "2022; 2021–2027 cycle", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "Official designation and description of the Porto–Foz coastal ARPSI and Porto–Vila Nova de Gaia Douro ARPSI; mapped scenario/exposed-element summaries; fluvial classification, upstream-control dependence and site-specific preparedness measures.", "title": "Plano de Gestão dos Riscos de Inundações da RH3 — Douro (PGRI, 2nd cycle)", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/_Agua/DRH/ParticipacaoPublica/PGRI/2022-2027/3_Fase/PGRI_RH3.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "Current 2nd-cycle plans, 2021–2027", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "Official explanation that Portuguese PGRIs, flood-hazard maps and flood-risk maps are the Floods Directive instruments used to reduce harmful flood consequences; notes climate-linked intense precipitation and sea-state concerns.", "title": "Planos de Gestão dos Riscos de Inundações", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/agua/planos-de-gestao-dos-riscos-de-inundacoes" }, { "date_or_year": "2024", "publisher": "Câmara Municipal do Porto", "supports": "City-specific exposure, urban-drainage and impermeability vulnerabilities, and CORDEX/RCP-based assessments through 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 for fluvial flooding, urban flooding and coastal overtopping.", "title": "Caderno I — Avaliação de Riscos e Vulnerabilidades do Porto, PMAC-Porto", "url": "https://ambiente.cm-porto.pt/files/uploads/cms/Caderno%20I%20Avalia%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20de%20Riscos%20e%20Vulnerabilidades%20do%20Porto_PMAC.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2015", "publisher": "Câmara Municipal do Porto", "supports": "Municipal civil-protection recognition of flood risk, Douro flood monitoring through SNIRH/CPPC-Douro, hydrometric monitoring at Cais dos Banhos, and monitoring of maritime agitation/coastal overtopping.", "title": "Plano Municipal de Emergência de Proteção Civil do Porto", "url": "https://www.cm-porto.pt/files/uploads/cms/cmp/11/files/1613399672-HLjgpOg6kp.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "Accessed 2026", "publisher": "Copernicus Emergency Management Service / European Commission Joint Research Centre", "supports": "EFAS scope: pan-European river and flash-flood forecasting, typical large-river scale, probabilistic lead times, and explicit complementarity to national/regional/local authorities rather than completeness or local determinations.", "title": "Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) — European Flood Awareness System", "url": "https://european-flood.emergency.copernicus.eu/faq" }, { "date_or_year": "2021", "publisher": "Climatic Change (Springer Nature)", "supports": "Peer-reviewed historical observed-event context for floods at the Douro mouth in Porto, their seasonality, documented impacts, and associated Atlantic-frontal heavy-precipitation conditions.", "title": "Historical floods of the Douro River in Porto, Portugal (1727–1799)", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03039-7" } ], "slug": "porto", "official_status": "Current APA ARPSI: Douro riverfront and Porto–Foz coast", "takeaway": "Highest combined exposure: the Douro estuary, dense urban drainage and Atlantic overtopping create three material pathways.", "planning_note": "Porto’s municipal climate plan raises late-century fluvial risk and mid-/late-century coastal overtopping to Critical.", "rank": 1 }, { "caveat": "This is a comparative screening index for a public dashboard, not an official EFAS probability, flood warning, or property-level determination. EFAS is forecast/awareness context only. The APA 2025 Matosinhos ARPSI appears in a preliminary third-cycle assessment/proposal, and the coastal-plan safeguard strips and Floods Directive maps must be inspected at the actual asset/location before planning, insurance, permitting or emergency decisions. Fluvial, pluvial/flash and coastal pathways can overlap during storms; no flood depth, probability or event impact at the supplied coordinate is inferred here.", "city": "Matosinhos", "climate_outlook_score": 4, "coastal_score": 3, "confidence": "Medium", "coordinates": { "lat": 41.1821, "lon": -8.6891 }, "efas_relevance": "Copernicus EMS describes EFAS as a Europe-wide operational system for monitoring and forecasting floods to support preparedness before major events, especially in large transnational basins; it provides complementary medium-range/probabilistic forecasts and flash-flood indicators to authorities. It is relevant to situational awareness for a Leça-basin event, but is not evidence of parcel-level or long-term flood probability at Matosinhos and is not used as such here.", "fluvial_score": 3, "hydro_setting": "Atlantic coastal municipality within the lower Rio Leça catchment/estuarine setting, with a densely urbanised and impervious built environment. Susceptibility therefore has three distinct pathways: riverine flooding associated with the Leça, rapid surface-water/urban drainage flooding during intense rain, and marine overtopping/coastal inundation along the ocean frontage.", "long_term_climate_signal": "The APA's national adaptation work identifies increased frequency and intensity of extreme-precipitation events, sea-level rise, and more frequent/intense extreme phenomena causing coastal overtopping and erosion as principal Portuguese climate vulnerabilities. Its RNA 2100 framework compiles regional projections for 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For low-lying coastal/estuarine and heavily urbanised Matosinhos, these national signals credibly indicate amplification of damaging pluvial, coastal and potentially compound exposure, though they are not a site-specific inundation forecast.", "observed_event_evidence": "APA records multiple past inundations on the Rio Leça (1909, 1929, 1935, 1959, 1962, 1972, 1995 and 2000), identifying the 1909 flood as especially severe; the Leça assessment covers Matosinhos, Maia and Valongo. This supports a documented basin-scale fluvial history, but the cited assessment does not establish that every event inundated the supplied city coordinate. The municipal Civil Protection material additionally recognises the operational relevance of flash and urban flooding, while the peer-reviewed Matosinhos study identifies spatially patterned urban-flood susceptibility linked to urban expansion and hydrological disruption.", "official_hazard_evidence": "APA's 2025 preliminary Floods Directive assessment for RH2 proposes the Matosinhos Leça area as a new area of potentially significant flood risk (ARPSI PTRH2Leça01), considering future extreme precipitation, climate-change effects, exposure and social vulnerability. APA's national coastal programme maps Level I/II safeguard strips for ocean overtopping and coastal inundation in Matosinhos and Leça da Palmeira (PIP52). Separately, Matosinhos Civil Protection explicitly distinguishes progressive floods, dangerous flash floods, and urban inundation caused where intense rainfall concentrates in streets and drainage cannot convey it adequately.", "overall_score": 69, "pluvial_flash_score": 4, "rationale": "The index assigns material fluvial susceptibility (3/5) because APA's official, current preliminary assessment proposes the Matosinhos section of the Leça as a potentially significant flood-risk area and documents recurrent historical Leça floods, while avoiding an unsupported claim that all city land is river-flood-prone. Pluvial/flash susceptibility is high (4/5): the municipality specifically identifies flash floods as most dangerous and describes urban runoff concentration and insufficient/blocked drainage, corroborated by a Matosinhos-specific peer-reviewed susceptibility study. Coastal susceptibility is material (3/5), not citywide certainty, because the national APA coastal plan maps overtopping/coastal-inundation safeguard strips in the Matosinhos/Leça da Palmeira frontage. Climate outlook is high (4/5) because authoritative national adaptation evidence spans 2041–2100 scenarios and identifies both extreme precipitation and sea-level/overtopping hazards. Formula: round(100 × (0.40×3/5 + 0.25×4/5 + 0.15×3/5 + 0.20×4/5)) = 69.", "risk_band": "High", "sources": [ { "date_or_year": "2025", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, I.P. (APA)", "supports": "Official basis for the proposed Matosinhos/Leça ARPSI (PTRH2Leça01), historical Leça flood record, and the assessment's consideration of future extreme precipitation, climate change and vulnerability.", "title": "Avaliação Preliminar dos Riscos de Inundações — Região Hidrográfica do Cávado, Ave e Leça (RH2), 3.º Ciclo", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/_SNIAMB_Agua/DRH/PlaneamentoOrdenamento/PGRI/2028-2034/1_fase/RH2/rh2_arpi_final.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "Accessed 2026", "publisher": "Câmara Municipal de Matosinhos — Proteção Civil", "supports": "Official municipal distinction between progressive floods, flash floods and urban inundation; documents street-runoff concentration and drainage-capacity/blockage mechanisms.", "title": "Cheias e Inundações", "url": "https://www.cm-matosinhos.pt/servicos/protecao-civil/riscos/riscos-naturais/cheias-e-inundacoes" }, { "date_or_year": "2018", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, I.P. (APA)", "supports": "Official coastal-planning sheet for Matosinhos and Leça da Palmeira showing Level I/II safeguard strips for ocean overtopping and coastal inundation.", "title": "PIP52 — Praia do Aterro, Programa da Orla Costeira Caminha–Espinho", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/_SNIAMB_Agua/DLPC/POC/POC_C-E/PIP_Praia/PIP52-Praia_Aterro.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "Accessed 2026", "publisher": "Copernicus Emergency Management Service", "supports": "Authoritative description of EFAS as Europe-wide operational flood monitoring/forecasting and preparedness support, including medium-range/probabilistic forecasts and flash-flood indicators; founded from JRC work.", "title": "European Flood Awareness System — EFAS", "url": "https://european-flood.emergency.copernicus.eu/european-flood-awareness-system-efas" }, { "date_or_year": "Accessed 2026", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, I.P. (APA)", "supports": "National adaptation evidence that Portugal faces increased extreme precipitation, sea-level rise, and more frequent/intense overtopping/erosion phenomena; identifies 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 projection periods.", "title": "Projetos em Adaptação — Roteiro Nacional para a Adaptação 2100", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/clima/projetos-em-adaptacao" }, { "date_or_year": "2006", "publisher": "Territorium, Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra", "supports": "Peer-reviewed Matosinhos-specific analysis of locations susceptible to urban flooding and the adverse hydrological consequences of urban expansion; keywords include imperviousness, intense rainfall and urban drainage.", "title": "Diagnóstico dos factores condicionantes da susceptibilidade face ao risco de inundação urbana no concelho de Matosinhos", "url": "https://impactum-journals.uc.pt/territorium/article/view/1647-7723_13_3" } ], "slug": "matosinhos", "official_status": "Proposed APA 3rd-cycle ARPSI: Rio Leça; coastal safeguard strips mapped", "takeaway": "Leça flooding, rapid urban runoff and Atlantic overtopping make this the second-highest multi-pathway screen.", "planning_note": "The Leça ARPSI is proposed in the 2025 preliminary assessment and is not yet final detailed hazard mapping.", "rank": 2 }, { "caveat": "This is a comparative screening index for a public OpenStreetMap dashboard, not an official EFAS forecast/probability, an APA legal-risk designation, or a property-level assessment. APA flood layers should be queried directly at the exact geometry, and local terrain, culverts, drainage capacity and defences require site-specific assessment. Municipal warning language documents operational susceptibility but must not be converted into invented depths, probabilities, losses or event counts.", "city": "Viseu", "climate_outlook_score": 3, "coastal_score": 0, "confidence": "Medium", "coordinates": { "lat": 40.6566, "lon": -7.9125 }, "efas_relevance": "EFAS is relevant as Copernicus/JRC continental screening and early-warning context: it monitors and forecasts floods, providing probabilistic medium-range forecasts, flash-flood indicators and impact information to authorised national/regional authorities. It is not evidence of a parcel-level or long-term flood probability for Viseu, and no EFAS forecast has been used to set this index.", "fluvial_score": 2, "hydro_setting": "Inland Viseu is crossed on its northern side by the Rio Pavia, a small (39 km) tributary of the Dão in the Mondego basin. APA material describes the Pavia as having low mean flow but substantial annual and interannual variability; this supports a locally relevant river/urban-drainage setting rather than exposure to a large main-stem river or the sea.", "long_term_climate_signal": "The municipality’s plan assesses Viseu Dão Lafões climate scenarios using precipitation totals and days above 10 and 20 mm, among other variables, for RCP4.5/RCP8.5 through 2100, drawing on the national RNA 2100 framework. It judges the future condition for safety of people and property as unfavourable, citing increasing risk of catastrophes from climate extremes including floods; its adaptation programme consequently includes flood monitoring/alerts and drainage/permeability measures. National APA guidance likewise states that a changing climate can bring a probable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods. This is a material amplification signal through 2050–2100, but not a local quantitative flood projection.", "observed_event_evidence": "The official material read does not provide a quantified, verified historical flood event at the supplied coordinate, so none is invented here. Viseu Municipal Civil Protection’s 9 February 2021 notice identifies expected rapid urban flooding from accumulated rainwater or drainage insufficiency and inundation from overflowing watercourses in historically vulnerable zones during intense/persistent rain; its 27 January 2026 warning again explicitly names urban flooding and flooding/overflow of watercourses under intense precipitation. These are authoritative operational-susceptibility warnings, not a record of measured damage or recurrence.", "official_hazard_evidence": "Portugal’s APA/SNIAmb provides second-cycle Floods Directive layers for significant-potential-flood-risk areas and flood-hazard/risk mapping; the national catalogue includes 100-year inundation extent, depth, velocity, exposure, hazard and risk layers. APA explains that mapped ARPSI were selected from significant impacts and then hydrologically/hydraulically modelled, across fluvial, pluvial and coastal mechanisms. This review did not obtain a coordinate-query result demonstrating that the supplied point is within an APA ARPSI, so it does not claim such a designation. Viseu’s 2025 Municipal Climate Action Plan nevertheless adopts measures to reduce exposure to floods/inundations through permeable areas and improved/deblocked pluvial-drainage infrastructure, to clean watercourses, and to improve flood/inundation monitoring, alerts and decision support.", "overall_score": 43, "pluvial_flash_score": 3, "rationale": "Fluvial exposure is scored 2 (locally relevant): the variable-flow Pavia crosses the city and municipal civil protection explicitly flags overflow of watercourses in historically vulnerable zones, but the reviewed evidence does not establish extensive main-river exposure or a point-specific APA ARPSI designation. Pluvial/flash exposure is scored 3 (material): the municipality explicitly identifies rapid urban flooding from rain accumulation/drainage limitations and has multiple drainage, permeability, monitoring and warning actions. Coastal exposure is 0 because Viseu is inland, with no coastal setting or coastal-flood pathway at these coordinates. Climate outlook is 3 because both municipal scenario-based planning to 2100 and APA national guidance identify worsening extreme-event/flood risk, without yielding a site-specific magnitude. Formula: round(100*(0.40*2/5 + 0.25*3/5 + 0.15*0/5 + 0.20*3/5)) = 43.", "risk_band": "Moderate", "sources": [ { "date_or_year": "n.d.", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA), ENEA", "supports": "Pavia crosses northern Viseu; it is a 39-km Dão tributary in the Mondego basin with low mean flow and significant annual/interannual variability.", "title": "H2Octógono Azul – Vamos adotar o nosso Rio Pavia", "url": "https://enea.apambiente.pt/content/h2oct%C3%B3gono-azul-%E2%80%93-vamos-adotar-o-nosso-rio-pavia?language=pt-pt" }, { "date_or_year": "2022–2027", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "Official method for APRI/ARPSI identification, hydraulic/hydrologic modelling and flood-risk mapping; mapping covers fluvial, pluvial and coastal mechanisms.", "title": "2.º Ciclo de Planeamento (2022–2027): Planos de Gestão dos Riscos de Inundações", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/agua/2o-ciclo-de-planeamento-2022-2027" }, { "date_or_year": "n.d.", "publisher": "Direção-Geral do Território / APA SNIAmb", "supports": "Official catalogue of 100-year inundation extent, depth, velocity, exposure, hazard and risk map services, and ARPSI geographic data.", "title": "Cartas de zonas inundáveis e cartas de risco de inundações elaboradas no âmbito da Diretiva 2007/60/CE", "url": "https://cnt.dgterritorio.gov.pt/node/5583" }, { "date_or_year": "2025", "publisher": "Câmara Municipal de Viseu", "supports": "Municipal RCP4.5/RCP8.5 assessment through 2100; unfavourable outlook for people/property safety from extremes including floods; local flood-monitoring, warning, permeable-area, watercourse-cleaning and drainage actions.", "title": "Plano Municipal de Ação Climática – Viseu", "url": "https://www.cm-viseu.pt/fotos/editor2/ambiente/alteracoes_climaticas/pmac_viseu_23_05_2025.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2021-02-09", "publisher": "Câmara Municipal de Viseu, Serviço Municipal de Proteção Civil", "supports": "Official local operational warning identifying possible rapid urban floods from pluvial accumulation/drainage limitations and overflow of watercourses in historically vulnerable areas.", "title": "Aviso | Condições meteorológicas adversas: medidas e cuidados a adotar", "url": "https://www.cm-viseu.pt/pt/noticias/aviso-condicoes-meteorologicas-adversas-medidas-e-cuidados-a-adotar/" }, { "date_or_year": "n.d.", "publisher": "Copernicus Emergency Management Service", "supports": "EFAS purpose and appropriate interpretation: operational European monitoring/forecasting and complementary probabilistic medium-range, flash-flood-indicator and impact information for authorities, not a long-term parcel-level prediction.", "title": "European Flood Awareness System – EFAS", "url": "https://european-flood.emergency.copernicus.eu/european-flood-awareness-system-efas" }, { "date_or_year": "n.d.", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "National adaptation context: climate change can increase the frequency/intensity of extreme events, including floods, and historic-climate design assumptions may become unsuitable.", "title": "Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/clima/politicas-e-medidas-de-adaptacao" } ], "slug": "viseu", "official_status": "No coordinate-specific APA ARPSI verified; municipal flood measures apply", "takeaway": "The Pavia and constrained urban drainage make pluvial/flash flooding more material than main-river flooding.", "planning_note": "Municipal planning to 2100 calls for permeable areas, drainage upgrades, watercourse cleaning and alerts.", "rank": 4 }, { "caveat": "The APA Floods Directive mapping is authoritative for its mapped ARPSI/scenario scope, while EFAS is an operational continental river-flood forecast system; neither should be represented as a parcel-scale, long-term prediction. The municipal PMAC is municipality-wide and its flood measures are adaptation actions rather than evidence of a flood event or a delineated hazard at 41.6075, -7.3109. Asset-level decisions should check the current APA/SNIAmb layers, local topography/drainage, and municipal civil-protection authorities; no depths, probabilities, or unverified event claims are asserted here.", "city": "Valpaços", "climate_outlook_score": 3, "coastal_score": 0, "confidence": "Medium", "coordinates": { "lat": 41.6075, "lon": -7.3109 }, "efas_relevance": "EFAS is relevant as continental-scale situational context for river flooding and early warning, but no location-specific EFAS forecast or output was used to score Valpaços. Copernicus describes EFAS as producing European overviews of ongoing and forecast floods up to 10 days ahead; it is therefore not a parcel-level or long-term flood-probability prediction.", "fluvial_score": 1, "hydro_setting": "Valpaços is an inland northern-Portuguese city/municipality, with exposure confined to inland watercourses and urban drainage rather than the coast. The municipality includes small river and ribeira corridors in the Rabaçal system: the municipal page identifies Rio Torto as a tributary of the Rio Rabaçal and describes that parish as a low-altitude part of the municipality, 8 km from Valpaços. This supports localized river-corridor and short-catchment exposure, not exposure to a major river floodplain at the supplied town coordinate.", "long_term_climate_signal": "The Valpaços PMAC uses 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 planning horizons and cites national projections of increased intense or very intense precipitation, while also projecting lower mean annual precipitation by late century. Separately, APA reports an expected increase in short-duration extreme precipitation events, with more difficult timely warning of fast flood risks in urban areas. This supports a material—but not location-quantified—climate amplification signal for pluvial/flash flooding through 2050–2100.", "observed_event_evidence": "No dated Valpaços flood event with verified impacts was identified in the official municipal, APA/SNIAmb, ANEPC, Copernicus, and JRC material reviewed. The score consequently does not infer recurrence, severity, or losses from anecdotal or unverified reports.", "official_hazard_evidence": "Portugal’s APA makes the second-cycle Floods Directive layers available through SNIAmb, including flood marks/inundation zones and Areas of Potential Significant Flood Risk (ARPSI), and explains that flood-hazard and flood-risk maps are prepared for ARPSI under the PGRI process. For Valpaços, the municipal 2024 Climate Action Plan specifically provides for reviewing floodable-area mapping and urban warning/alert systems, assessing drainage capacity for peak flood flows, upstream retention studies, and hydrological/hydraulic studies for torrential-correction structures on ribeiras. These are credible evidence of locally relevant flood/flash-flood and drainage-management concern, but they do not supply a verified inundation extent, depth, probability, or a designation of the supplied coordinate within an APA mapped zone.", "overall_score": 30, "pluvial_flash_score": 2, "rationale": "This is a comparative screening index, not an official EFAS probability. Fluvial exposure is scored low/limited (1/5): Valpaços is inland and has local river/ribeira corridors, but the reviewed evidence does not establish extensive or recurrent river inundation at the city coordinate. Pluvial/flash exposure is locally relevant (2/5): the municipal PMAC’s floodable-area mapping, drainage-capacity, retention, warning, and torrential-ribeira actions substantiate concern but do not justify a material-or-higher score. Coastal exposure is explicitly 0/5 because Valpaços is inland with no coastal flooding pathway. Climate outlook is material (3/5), based on municipal 2041–2100 planning and authoritative Portuguese evidence of more short-duration extreme precipitation. Formula: round(100 × (0.40×1/5 + 0.25×2/5 + 0.15×0/5 + 0.20×3/5)) = 30, hence Moderate.", "risk_band": "Moderate", "sources": [ { "date_or_year": "2024", "publisher": "Município de Valpaços / GeoAtributo-CIPOT", "supports": "Direct municipal evidence: the plan sets actions to review floodable-area mapping and warning/alert systems, assess urban storm-drain capacity and peak flows, create upstream retention, and study torrential correction on ribeiras. It also cites increased intense/very intense precipitation and uses 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 horizons.", "title": "Plano Municipal de Ação Climática de Valpaços, Versão 01", "url": "https://valpacos.pt/cmvalpacos/uploads/document/file/3898/e8_pmac_valpacos_v01.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2021–2027 second cycle current", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "Official explanation of Portugal’s Floods Directive process: preliminary assessment identifies ARPSI, flood-hazard/risk maps are produced for them, and PGRI measures address prevention, protection, preparedness and forecasting.", "title": "Planos de Gestão dos Riscos de Inundações", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/agua/planos-de-gestao-dos-riscos-de-inundacoes" }, { "date_or_year": "Accessed 2026", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "Official national map viewer listing flood marks/inundation zones and second-cycle Floods Directive layers, including Areas of Potential Significant Flood Risk.", "title": "Visualizador SNIAmb", "url": "https://sniamb.apambiente.pt/content/geo-visualizador" }, { "date_or_year": "Archived Copernicus page, accessed 2026", "publisher": "Copernicus Emergency Management Service / European Commission Joint Research Centre", "supports": "Defines EFAS as a European overview and early-forecast service for ongoing and forecast floods, with products up to 10 days ahead; supports limiting EFAS to screening/forecast context.", "title": "European Flood Awareness System", "url": "https://www.copernicus.eu/en/european-flood-awareness-system" }, { "date_or_year": "2021", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "Reports Portugal’s projected increase in days with heavy precipitation and expected short-duration extreme precipitation events that heighten fast urban flood-warning difficulty.", "title": "National climate change adaptation planning and strategies: Portugal report", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/_Clima/Adapta%C3%A7%C3%A3o/Reporte_Adaptacao_Portugal_15_03_2021.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2020", "publisher": "European Commission Joint Research Centre / Publications Office of the European Union", "supports": "Authoritative European context that global warming and continued development in flood-prone areas progressively increase river-flood risk, while clarifying that adaptation can reduce impacts; not used as a Valpaços-specific probability estimate.", "title": "Adapting to rising river flood risk in the EU under climate change (JRC PESETA IV, JRC118425)", "url": "https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC118425" } ], "slug": "valpacos", "official_status": "No coordinate-specific APA ARPSI verified", "takeaway": "Exposure appears localized around small streams and drainage; authoritative event evidence is comparatively sparse.", "planning_note": "The municipal climate plan calls for floodable-area review, peak-flow capacity checks, retention and torrential-ribeira studies.", "rank": 7 }, { "caveat": "This is a public-facing comparative screening index, not an official EFAS probability, an APA flood-hazard designation for a parcel, or a forecast. APA ARPSI coverage and the exposed element cited apply at the municipal/Lis-risk-area scale; they must not be interpreted as confirming inundation at 39.7477, -8.9323. The coastal score is explicitly 0 because this specified city coordinate is inland, despite coastal areas elsewhere in the municipality. Site-level decisions require consultation of APA/SNIAmb interactive hazard and risk mapping, local topography/drainage, and the complete municipal plan/cartography.", "city": "Marinha Grande", "climate_outlook_score": 4, "coastal_score": 0, "confidence": "Medium", "coordinates": { "lat": 39.7477, "lon": -8.9323 }, "efas_relevance": "EFAS is relevant only as continental-scale situational awareness and river-flood forecasting context: Copernicus describes it as producing European overviews of ongoing and forecast floods up to 10 days ahead and as an added-value product for hydrological services. No EFAS output was used as a long-term, parcel-level, or city-probability prediction.", "fluvial_score": 2, "hydro_setting": "The supplied city coordinate is inland in the Marinha Grande urban area. At municipality scale, APA's RH4A plan lists Marinha Grande among the municipalities covered by the fluvial Leiria/Lis significant-potential-flood-risk area (PTRH4ALis01); the plan's exposed-elements table includes the Vieira de Leiria wastewater-treatment plant in Marinha Grande. This is municipal/lower-Lis context, not evidence that the coordinate itself is within the mapped floodplain. The municipal territory reaches the Atlantic, but the specified city coordinate is inland.", "long_term_climate_signal": "The APA RH4A plan expects more frequent extreme events with high-intensity precipitation concentrated in short periods and applies climate-change analysis for 2041–2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For the Leiria/Lis ARPSI it lists a 6% expected increase in peak flood discharge for the analysed 100-year-flow scenario. IPCC AR6 additionally assesses heavy-precipitation increases over Europe as likely with further warming. This is material evidence of amplification of damaging fluvial and pluvial/flash drivers through mid-century and beyond, while not a location-specific 2100 inundation projection.", "observed_event_evidence": "No city-specific historic flood event was used to raise the score: the reviewed municipal public material is preparedness-oriented rather than an event inventory. Reporting on adverse weather in December 2022 documented water-supply disruption in parts of the municipality, but did not establish flooding in Marinha Grande city, so it is not treated as flood-event evidence.", "official_hazard_evidence": "APA's approved RH4A 2022–2027 Flood Risk Management Plan identifies the Leiria/Lis ARPSI as fluvial and includes Marinha Grande among the municipalities it covers. It provides a programme of preparation, prevention, and protection measures for that ARPSI, including hydrological forecasting and flood emergency planning. Marinha Grande's municipal emergency-plan page states that its updated 2024 PMEPC characterises municipal risks and includes cartography; its municipal civil-protection flood guidance warns that sudden intense-rain floods may allow little warning and is directed to residents in flood-risk zones. These sources support locally relevant fluvial and intense-rain/flash susceptibility, but do not establish a mapped hazard at the supplied city point.", "overall_score": 42, "pluvial_flash_score": 2, "rationale": "This comparative screening assigns locally relevant (2/5) fluvial susceptibility because the municipality is explicitly included in APA's fluvial Lis ARPSI, but limits the score because the evidence is municipal/ARPSI-scale and does not place the supplied inland city coordinate in a flood zone. Pluvial/flash susceptibility is also locally relevant (2/5), supported by municipal warning of sudden intense-rain flooding but without a city-specific event catalogue or drainage-flood map reviewed here. Coastal susceptibility is 0/5 because the specified city is inland; the municipality's Atlantic frontage is not attributed to the city point. Climate outlook is high/material (4/5) because the applicable APA plan quantitatively adjusts the Lis ARPSI peak-flow scenario for 2041–2070 and expects more short-duration intense precipitation. Formula: round(100*(0.40*2/5 + 0.25*2/5 + 0.15*0/5 + 0.20*4/5)) = 42.", "risk_band": "Moderate", "sources": [ { "date_or_year": "2022–2027; approved 2024", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "Official evidence that Marinha Grande is among municipalities covered by the fluvial Leiria/Lis ARPSI; identifies the ARPSI as fluvial, documents exposed elements in Marinha Grande, and provides the 2041–2070 climate-change treatment and 6% Lis peak-flow increment.", "title": "Plano de Gestão dos Riscos de Inundações da Região Hidrográfica do Vouga, Mondego e Lis (RH4A), 2022–2027", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/_SNIAMB_Agua/DRH/PlaneamentoOrdenamento/PGRI/2022-2027/3_fase/RH4A/PGRI_RH4A.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2022–2027", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA)", "supports": "Official national explanation that Portuguese ARPSI are selected from significant flood impacts and mapped for fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood risk; directs users to the geographic viewer.", "title": "2.º Ciclo de Planeamento (2022–2027) — Planos de Gestão dos Riscos de Inundações", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/agua/2o-ciclo-de-planeamento-2022-2027" }, { "date_or_year": "2024", "publisher": "Município da Marinha Grande", "supports": "Official municipal confirmation that the updated PMEPCMG was published through Aviso n.º 4393/2024 and contains risk characterisation and cartography.", "title": "Plano municipal emergência", "url": "https://www.cm-mgrande.pt/agir/areas-de-intervencao/protecao-civil/plano-municipal-emergencia" }, { "date_or_year": "n.d.", "publisher": "Município da Marinha Grande", "supports": "Official municipal flood-preparedness guidance, including the warning that sudden intense-rain floods can leave little time for warning and advice for people in flood-risk zones.", "title": "Cheias", "url": "https://www.cm-mgrande.pt/pages/183" }, { "date_or_year": "n.d. (archived Copernicus page)", "publisher": "Copernicus Emergency Management Service / European Commission Joint Research Centre", "supports": "Defines EFAS as a European overview and early flood-forecasting service for ongoing and forecast floods up to 10 days ahead, supporting its limited contextual—not long-term parcel-risk—use.", "title": "European Flood Awareness System", "url": "https://www.copernicus.eu/en/european-flood-awareness-system" }, { "date_or_year": "2021", "publisher": "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)", "supports": "Authoritative assessment that heavy-precipitation increases in Europe are likely with additional warming, supporting the broader long-term pluvial/flash amplification context.", "title": "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate", "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/" } ], "slug": "marinha-grande", "official_status": "Municipality included in APA Leiria/Lis ARPSI; city-centre inundation not established", "takeaway": "The main evidence is municipal/lower-Lis context; the plotted city centre is inland and not confirmed inside the mapped floodplain.", "planning_note": "APA applies a 6% peak-flow increment to the Lis 100-year scenario for 2041–2070.", "rank": 5 }, { "caveat": "This is a comparative screening index, not an official EFAS probability, a flood forecast, or a parcel-level determination. EFAS should be used for pan-European river-flood forecast context only. The APA/SNIAmb 100-year layer is official regional-scale hazard mapping and must be inspected with its metadata, scenario limits, drainage assets, elevations, and local engineering studies before site decisions. ‘Floods/inundations’ in municipal occurrence data do not by themselves separate river and surface-water mechanisms or quantify losses; the component split above relies on the municipal plan’s qualitative mechanism descriptions. Climate conclusions retain uncertainty because projected annual precipitation can decline while rainfall timing/concentration and urban drainage stress remain consequential.", "city": "Évora", "climate_outlook_score": 3, "coastal_score": 0, "confidence": "Medium", "coordinates": { "lat": 38.5714, "lon": -7.9135 }, "efas_relevance": "EFAS is relevant only as continental-scale situational awareness for river flooding: Copernicus describes it as providing European overviews of ongoing and forecast floods up to 10 days ahead and added-value early forecasts to hydrological services. It is not evidence of a parcel-level or long-term probability for the supplied coordinate, and it is not used as such here.", "fluvial_score": 1, "hydro_setting": "Évora is inland, with no coastal interface. In the urban-plan area, surface flow is predominantly north-to-south; the Rio Xarrama runs along the eastern urban edge, with the Ribeiras da Torregela, Viscosa and Salgados and smaller tributaries/drainage lines also relevant. The municipal plan identifies flood-threatened zones along the main natural drainage lines and notes urban sub-basins/low accumulation areas where runoff concentrates.", "long_term_climate_signal": "The municipal climate-adaptation evidence identifies excessive precipitation (flooding/inundation) as a city climate risk and says vulnerable urban drainage points may require adjustment under projected climate conditions. Its precipitation projections are uncertain and mixed: one mid-range scenario shows rainfall concentrated into fewer days, while higher-emissions projections show lower annual precipitation and fewer wet days. APA’s national adaptation material cautions that historical climate is no longer an adequate basis for flood-protection design and identifies a probable increase in frequency and intensity of extremes including floods. Thus the defensible outlook is amplification of short-duration runoff/drainage stress, not a claim of uniformly increasing river flows or a quantified future flood probability.", "observed_event_evidence": "The municipal urban-plan report states that inundations frequently occur at several city locations after heavier precipitation. It attributes these mainly to sealed natural flow paths, lack of infiltration space, barriers concentrating water quickly, and inadequate/blocked or undersized stormwater drainage, including connections with sewerage; it also identifies runoff-accumulation zones with frequent inundations. Its important qualification is that it knows of no river-flood records associated with significant material damage in the PU Évora intervention area. The municipal emergency plan’s historical-occurrence table nevertheless records annual occurrences classified as “cheias e inundações” from 2012–2018, corroborating an operationally recurring local inundation issue without establishing flood depth, probability, or damage magnitude.", "official_hazard_evidence": "Portugal’s APA/SNIAmb provides official Floods Directive hazard mapping, including the continental 100-year flood-area boundary layer (a medium-probability hazard scenario). At city scale, Évora’s municipal urban-plan risk report maps flood-threatened zones along main natural flow lines. The April 2025 APA preliminary assessment for the Guadiana RH7 identifies/retains significant-risk areas through the ARPSI process; its described retained and newly proposed RH7 areas are not Évora, so this screening does not treat Évora as a regionally designated significant fluvial-flood-risk area. Separately, the municipal emergency plan classifies “cheias e inundações” as Low risk for the municipality.", "overall_score": 35, "pluvial_flash_score": 3, "rationale": "Fluvial exposure is scored 1 (low/limited): natural watercourses and mapped flood-threatened corridors exist, but the municipal report finds no known significant-damage river-flood record in its urban-plan area, the municipal emergency plan rates floods/inundations Low, and the current APA RH7 preliminary significant-risk assessment does not identify Évora as an ARPSI. Pluvial/flash exposure is scored 3 (material): the municipal report explicitly documents frequent post-heavy-rain inundation at multiple city points, recurrent runoff accumulation, and drainage/infiltration constraints that can produce damaging disruption to infrastructure and buildings. Coastal exposure is 0 because Évora is inland. Climate outlook is scored 3 (material but uncertain): local adaptation evidence and national APA guidance support heightened concern for concentrated precipitation and extreme-event impacts, while local precipitation projections are not unidirectional. Overall score = round(100 × (0.40×1/5 + 0.25×3/5 + 0.15×0/5 + 0.20×3/5)) = 35, which is Moderate.", "risk_band": "Moderate", "sources": [ { "date_or_year": "2025", "publisher": "Câmara Municipal de Évora", "supports": "Évora-specific hydrography; flood-threatened drainage corridors; frequent post-heavy-rain urban inundation, mechanisms (imperviousness, runoff concentration and drainage constraints), absence of known significant-damage river-flood records in the PU area, and local climate-adaptation/projection context.", "title": "Plano de Urbanização de Évora — Ambiente, Riscos e Estrutura Fundamental da Paisagem", "url": "https://www.cm-evora.pt/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Relatorio-3_Ambiente_Riscos_EstruturaFundamentalPaisagem.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2024", "publisher": "Câmara Municipal de Évora / Serviço Municipal de Proteção Civil", "supports": "Municipal risk hierarchy classifies cheias e inundações as Low risk and includes the 2012–2018 historic occurrence table for this category.", "title": "Plano Municipal de Emergência de Proteção Civil de Évora", "url": "https://www.cm-evora.pt/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Plano_Municipal_Emergencia_Protecao_Civil_Evora_2024-1.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2015 (metadata creation); accessed current catalogue", "publisher": "SNIAmb / Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, I.P.", "supports": "Official APA/SNIAmb Floods Directive spatial dataset: 100-year flood-area boundary, medium-probability flood-hazard scenario, with WMS/WFS/download endpoints and stated 1:25,000 equivalent scale.", "title": "Carta de zonas inundáveis — Portugal continental — Limite da área de inundação (Período de Retorno de 100 anos)", "url": "https://sniambgeoportal.apambiente.pt/geoportal/catalog/search/resource/details.page?uuid=%7BAD1A2D0A-0057-43BF-8BEA-72EAB7AD6171%7D" }, { "date_or_year": "April 2025", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, I.P.", "supports": "Official preliminary flood-risk assessment methodology, RH7 ARPSI review/proposals, and regional treatment of intense-precipitation/climate-change context; source is a consultation-stage project report.", "title": "Avaliação Preliminar dos Riscos de Inundações na Região Hidrográfica do Guadiana (RH7), 3.º Ciclo", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/_SNIAMB_Agua/DRH/PlaneamentoOrdenamento/PGRI/2028-2034/1_fase/RH7/Participacao_Publica/rh7_apri_projeto.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "accessed 2026", "publisher": "Copernicus Emergency Management Service / European Commission Joint Research Centre", "supports": "EFAS remit: European overviews of ongoing and forecast floods up to 10 days ahead and early forecasting support for hydrological services, supporting its limited screening/forecast-context use.", "title": "European Flood Awareness System", "url": "https://www.copernicus.eu/en/european-flood-awareness-system" }, { "date_or_year": "accessed 2026", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, I.P.", "supports": "National authoritative adaptation context: Mediterranean change, inadequacy of relying solely on historical climate for flood protection, and expected greater frequency/intensity of extremes including floods.", "title": "Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/clima/politicas-e-medidas-de-adaptacao" } ], "slug": "evora", "official_status": "Not identified as an RH7 ARPSI; municipal pluvial hotspots documented", "takeaway": "Surface-water accumulation and drainage constraints dominate; significant-damage river flooding is not established in the urban-plan evidence.", "planning_note": "Future rainfall totals are uncertain, but more concentrated rainfall can continue to stress urban drainage.", "rank": 6 }, { "caveat": "This is a city-level comparative screening index, not an official EFAS forecast or probability, flood-depth, return-period, or parcel-risk determination. The Bragança ARPSI is a 2025 APA third-cycle APRI proposal, explicitly subject to public consultation and possible revision; it should not be represented as final detailed hazard mapping. Confirm exact exposure against the current APA/SNIAmb map layers and local site, elevation, drainage and building information before planning or insurance decisions.", "city": "Bragança", "climate_outlook_score": 3, "coastal_score": 0, "confidence": "Medium", "coordinates": { "lat": 41.8061, "lon": -6.7567 }, "efas_relevance": "EFAS is relevant as continental/pan-European early-warning and situational context for river and flash-flood conditions affecting the wider Douro system. Copernicus describes EFAS as providing European overviews of ongoing and forecast flooding up to 10 days ahead and added-value information for hydrological services; it is not a parcel-level or long-term probability prediction for Bragança.", "fluvial_score": 3, "hydro_setting": "Inland northeastern Portuguese city in the Douro hydrographic region; the APA’s third-cycle preliminary assessment identifies a potential inundation area on the Rio Fervença within the municipality of Bragança. There is no coastal setting or coastal-flood pathway at this city location.", "long_term_climate_signal": "Climate amplification is material but locally unquantified in the evidence reviewed. APA states that very intense precipitation associated with climate change heightens flood-management concern, and its 2025 RH3 APRI explicitly included future events associated with climate-change risks when proposing the Bragança ARPSI. JRC likewise finds that climate change will increase European river-flood impacts, but that is regional context rather than a Bragança-specific 2050–2100 projection.", "observed_event_evidence": "The APA APRI states that its assessment considered known flood events, future events, vulnerability and climate-change effects, but the cited Bragança passage does not quantify a particular historic local flood. In its 5 February 2026 official warning, Bragança municipality reported significantly increased Douro tributary levels/flows following precipitation, warned of potential urban/rural inundation and overtopping of watercourses/ribeiras, and advised avoiding locations with a history of floods; it also stated that no relevant incidents had been recorded at that time. Accordingly, this screening does not claim a quantified local damage history or recurrence rate.", "official_hazard_evidence": "APA’s 2025 draft Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (APRI) for the Douro region identifies an area on the Rio Fervença in Bragança as a potential flood area. It reports medium social vulnerability on population, socio-economic, buildings and exposure factors and concludes that the area should be designated an ARPSI (Area of Potentially Significant Flood Risk), proposed as new code PTRH3Fervença01 with fluvial/pluvial origin. The municipal emergency plan and its mitigation annex also explicitly treat cheias e inundações as a natural hazard, including urban-drainage maintenance, flood-susceptibility mapping, flood-zone land-use controls, warning and response measures.", "overall_score": 51, "pluvial_flash_score": 3, "rationale": "Fluvial exposure is material because APA proposes a Fervença–Bragança fluvial/pluvial ARPSI after a formal screening that found a potential inundation area and medium vulnerability across all reported social-vulnerability factors. Pluvial/flash exposure is also material rather than negligible: APA assigns the proposed ARPSI a combined fluvial/pluvial origin, while municipal planning addresses both overbank flooding and urban drainage/accumulation of rainwater. Coastal score is 0 because Bragança is inland and has no coastal flood exposure. Climate outlook is 3 because authoritative sources indicate increased relevance of intense-precipitation extremes and APA incorporated climate-related future risk in this proposal. Formula: round(100 × (0.40×3/5 + 0.25×3/5 + 0.15×0/5 + 0.20×3/5)) = 51.", "risk_band": "High", "sources": [ { "date_or_year": "2025", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, I.P. (APA)", "supports": "Bragança/Rio Fervença potential inundation area; medium vulnerability factors; proposed new ARPSI PTRH3Fervença01 of fluvial/pluvial origin; assessment considered known events, future events and climate-change risks; proposal remains consultative.", "title": "Avaliação Preliminar dos Riscos de Inundações — Região Hidrográfica do Douro, 3.º Ciclo (projecto)", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/_SNIAMB_Agua/DRH/PlaneamentoOrdenamento/PGRI/2028-2034/1_fase/RH3/Participacao_Publica/rh3_apri_projeto.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "Accessed 2026", "publisher": "Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, I.P. (APA)", "supports": "Official Portuguese flood-risk-management framework; purpose of ARPSI, flood hazard/risk mapping and PGRI; APA statement that very intense precipitation associated with climate change increases flood-management concern.", "title": "Planos de Gestão dos Riscos de Inundações", "url": "https://apambiente.pt/agua/planos-de-gestao-dos-riscos-de-inundacoes" }, { "date_or_year": "2021", "publisher": "Município de Bragança", "supports": "Official municipal emergency-planning basis that includes flooding/inundation in its civil-protection arrangements.", "title": "Plano Municipal de Emergência de Proteção Civil de Bragança", "url": "https://www.cm-braganca.pt/cmbraganca2020/uploads/writer_file/document/9708/pmepc_brg_vs04_partenaoreservada.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2021", "publisher": "Município de Bragança", "supports": "Municipal flood/inundation prevention and mitigation measures, including drainage-channel and sump cleaning, watercourse-bank monitoring, flood-susceptibility mapping, flood-zone controls, warning and emergency exercises.", "title": "Anexo II — Programa de Medidas a Implementar para Prevenção e Mitigação dos Riscos Identificados e para a Operacionalidade do Plano", "url": "https://www.cm-braganca.pt/cmbraganca2020/uploads/writer_file/document/9709/anexo_ii_pmepc_brg_vs04.pdf" }, { "date_or_year": "2026-02-05", "publisher": "Município de Bragança", "supports": "Contemporary official local warning: precipitation-driven rise in Douro tributary flows, possible urban/rural inundation and overtopping, sites with historical floods, and explicit note that no relevant occurrence had yet been recorded.", "title": "Aviso à população emitido pela Autoridade Nacional de Emergência e Proteção Civil", "url": "https://www.cm-braganca.pt/transparencia/comunicacao/noticias/noticia/aviso-a-populacao-emitido-pela-autoridade-nacional-de-emergencia-e-protecao-civil" }, { "date_or_year": "Accessed 2026", "publisher": "Copernicus / European Commission Joint Research Centre", "supports": "EFAS purpose and limits: European overview of ongoing and forecast floods up to 10 days ahead, providing added-value early-forecast information to hydrological services rather than a local long-term parcel prediction.", "title": "European Flood Awareness System", "url": "https://www.copernicus.eu/en/european-flood-awareness-system" }, { "date_or_year": "Accessed 2026", "publisher": "Joint Research Centre, European Commission", "supports": "EFAS is a pan-European forecasting/monitoring system that supports national and regional authorities; regional climate-change context for increasing river-flood impacts.", "title": "Floods", "url": "https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/projects-and-activities/natural-and-man-made-hazards/floods_en" } ], "slug": "braganca", "official_status": "Proposed APA 3rd-cycle ARPSI: Rio Fervença (fluvial/pluvial)", "takeaway": "The Fervença corridor and urban drainage produce a material combined fluvial/pluvial screen.", "planning_note": "The proposed ARPSI has medium social vulnerability and remains consultation-stage evidence.", "rank": 3 } ] }